Stories about floods pre-date reliable record keeping. Using Bayesian techniques, these events can improve flood frequency analysis even though the specifics of the events are highly uncertain. “Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively.“

http://ow.ly/dC1d304e6Vv

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